The Armed Conflict in Cabo Delgado: Understanding the Crisis and Its Implications
- Fundação RESET
- Mar 15
- 3 min read
Since October 2017, the province of Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, has been the epicenter of an armed conflict involving insurgent groups and Mozambican defense forces. Characterized by violence, displacement, and economic instability, the conflict has persisted for over four years without signs of resolution. The 2020 Conflict Analysis Report on Cabo Delgado, published by the Lusíada University, assesses the nature of the conflict, the role of state and non-state actors, and the socio-economic impacts on the affected population.
Key Findings
1. The Nature and Evolution of the Conflict
The conflict in Cabo Delgado involves Islamist militant groups, often referred to as Al-Shabab, which have launched attacks on civilians, state institutions, and infrastructure. The report suggests that the insurgency is not just a localized terrorist movement but part of a broader transnational security threat. The group’s evolution from poorly equipped militants to a well-coordinated force with modern weaponry indicates external influence and financial backing. The conflict is also fueled by economic disparities and governance failures, which have alienated local communities and facilitated recruitment by insurgents.
2. Humanitarian Crisis and Internal Displacement
The ongoing violence has resulted in a major humanitarian crisis, with over 700,000 people forcibly displaced from their homes. Entire villages have been burned down, and key infrastructures—such as hospitals and schools—have been destroyed. Displaced individuals have sought refuge in urban centers like Pemba, where overcrowding, food insecurity, and inadequate access to healthcare have intensified. Many displaced communities lack essential services and support, and reports indicate rising tensions between host communities and refugees.
3. Economic and Security Implications
Cabo Delgado is home to one of the largest natural gas reserves in Africa, and the conflict has severely disrupted investment and economic development in the region. Major foreign investors, including TotalEnergies, have suspended their operations due to the deteriorating security situation. Additionally, illegal networks involved in drug trafficking, smuggling, and illicit resource extraction may be financially supporting insurgent groups. The Mozambican government has struggled to effectively counter the insurgency, relying heavily on private military contractors and regional security partnerships.
4. Challenges in Counterterrorism and Governance
The Mozambican state faces significant challenges in addressing the conflict, including intelligence failures, inadequate counterterrorism capabilities, and weak governance structures. The response has been military-focused, with limited success in preventing attacks or stabilizing the region. Reports indicate human rights violations by both insurgents and security forces, further complicating peace efforts. Moreover, political divisions and economic grievances have exacerbated the local population’s distrust toward the government, making counterterrorism efforts less effective.
The armed conflict in Cabo Delgado represents a complex security, humanitarian, and economic crisis. Addressing it requires a multi-faceted approach, including enhanced security operations, economic development, and governance reforms. The report emphasizes the need for greater international cooperation, improved intelligence-sharing, and inclusive development strategies to address the root causes of the insurgency. Without long-term solutions focusing on poverty reduction, youth employment, and social cohesion, the conflict is likely to persist, further destabilizing the region.
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